Price will determine the "winner" in this battle. right now it is basically anyones game. A safe move for sony and consumers but the compatability each format has is "good enough" for most people. The price of descent media is not though. Whoever's media and drives are cheapest and has the best availability will win. Hopefully the A04 drive will plumet in price when the a05 is out.
A05 will burn at 4x so speeds will match pretty quick