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The thing about the ps3 is it's been hacked wide open from every possible way. You want the keys? you got them. You want signed software? got it. They don't have a system in place to detect cfw which is why they will implement a feature on 3.60 to compliment their new network upgrade.
Who's to say you can't remove the check Sony looks for in the new firmware? Of course it will take time and people will rush in and get banned, but it's more accessible than the 360. They haven't even suspended any account that has been online from 3.41 psn payload. Microsoft has that dectection system implemented in their hardware, not just firmware. Sony hasn't implemented shit in their hardware to detect these sort of things. This means it's all up to the firmware to do the work. Crack the new firmware and remove that check and you're fine.
The problem many have is not having any patience. They'll rush out to update knowing eventually there will be cfw for 3.60 and onwards and get banned. You'd think from the downgrade fiasco amd Waninkoko's custom brickware they would learn to wait. Don't count on it.
Really only time will tell. Technically all the information is on the hardware itself. They just would have to build the system if they don't already have it.
As soon as you log in into the PSN they could check and ban you. It wouldn't take much really. Your breaking the EULA, instant ban. Is not that hard to understand that! That's why geoHot hasn't gotten nailed by the lawsuit because he never actually agreed to the EULA because you have to use the PSN in order to break it!
Legally speaking you are using a CFW you breaking that EULA. But I guess Sony hasn't yet implemented a way to automatically ban PS3. So are you safe? not really but who knows! Nobody thought that Sony was going to sue GeoHot, fail0verflow, and 100 john does.